Ecuador Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.91 (0.73, 1.13) 0.9 (0.73, 1.09) 0.91 (0.73, 1.12) 0.99 (0.83, 1.19) 1.03 (0.87, 1.24)
1 1.07 (0.89, 1.33) 1 (0.86, 1.19) 1.16 (0.98, 1.36) 0.86 (0.74, 0.98) 1.05 (0.92, 1.18)
2 0.81 (0.69, 1.15) 1.05 (0.9, 1.2) 1.14 (0.94, 1.36) 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) 0.79 (0.68, 0.91)
3 0.82 (0.72, 1.1) 0.99 (0.86, 1.15) 0.99 (0.86, 1.14) 0.78 (0.69, 0.89) 0.8 (0.71, 0.9)
4 0.86 (0.71, 0.99) 0.89 (0.79, 1) 0.88 (0.77, 1.01) 0.84 (0.72, 0.97) 0.78 (0.68, 0.87)
5 0.79 (0.61, 0.97) 0.81 (0.67, 0.98) 0.75 (0.63, 0.9) 0.76 (0.62, 0.92) 0.67 (0.56, 0.8)
6 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) 0.74 (0.63, 0.85) 0.72 (0.61, 0.84) 0.75 (0.66, 0.87)
7 0.9 (0.77, 1.05) 0.93 (0.8, 1.06) 0.85 (0.75, 0.96) 0.83 (0.73, 0.94) 0.86 (0.76, 0.98)
8 1 (0.86, 1.15) 1 (0.88, 1.15) 0.93 (0.82, 1.05) 0.89 (0.78, 1.02) 0.96 (0.85, 1.09)
9 0.91 (0.75, 1.13) 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) 0.92 (0.78, 1.08) 0.89 (0.77, 1.03) 1.02 (0.89, 1.17)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.335 0.601 0.000 0.065
1 0.295 0.416 0.000 0.289
2 0.241 0.001 0.000 0.758
3 0.251 0.000 0.000 0.749
4 0.687 0.000 0.000 0.313
5 0.828 0.000 0.000 0.172
6 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
7 0.701 0.299 0.000 0.000
8 0.962 0.000 0.038 0.000
9 0.579 0.000 0.000 0.421

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.5763879 P00_99 0.4513217
1 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.6527822 ach_noj 0.3794733
2 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 S00_T99 0.9999745 E40_46 0.2214669
3 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 S00_T99 0.9966184 G00_99_SY 0.6495568
4 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 N00_99 0.9965701 C00_D48 0.0626619
5 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.4830000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.1849444
6 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.4688363 D50_89 0.4558444
7 cJ20_J22 0.9032380 E00_99 0.8806808 E10_14 0.1491673
8 ach_noj 0.9794314 cJ20_J22 0.6994214 N39 0.4264013
9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.9726792 D50_89 0.0962530

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used
Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.9 (0.73, 1.09) cJ20_J22 1 1.18 (0.95, 1.44) P05_07 0.58 1.12 (0.9, 1.39) P00_99 0.45 1.14 (0.91, 1.41)
1 1 (0.86, 1.19) cJ20_J22 1 1.28 (1.1, 1.49) P00_99 0.65 1.41 (1.22, 1.63) ach_noj 0.38 1.47 (1.22, 1.74)
2 1.05 (0.9, 1.2) cJ20_J22 1 1.21 (1, 1.47) S00_T99 1 1.26 (1.01, 1.53) E40_46 0.22 1.26 (1.02, 1.52)
3 0.99 (0.86, 1.15) cJ20_J22 1 1.16 (0.97, 1.37) S00_T99 1 1.13 (0.95, 1.32) G00_99_SY 0.65 1.17 (0.99, 1.36)
4 0.89 (0.79, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.91 (0.8, 1.06) N00_99 1 0.92 (0.79, 1.12) C00_D48 0.06 0.91 (0.79, 1.07)
5 0.81 (0.67, 0.98) cJ20_J22 1 0.71 (0.56, 0.88) ach_noj 0.48 0.69 (0.54, 0.87) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.18 0.74 (0.58, 0.92)
6 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) cJ20_J22 1 0.77 (0.64, 0.89) E00_99 0.47 0.77 (0.64, 0.89) D50_89 0.46 0.79 (0.66, 0.92)
7 0.93 (0.8, 1.06) cJ20_J22 0.9 0.85 (0.75, 0.97) E00_99 0.88 0.87 (0.76, 0.99) E10_14 0.15 0.88 (0.77, 1.01)
8 1 (0.88, 1.15) ach_noj 0.98 1.06 (0.93, 1.21) cJ20_J22 0.7 1.05 (0.92, 1.19) N39 0.43 1 (0.89, 1.13)
9 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) cJ20_J22 1 1.1 (0.91, 1.32) ach_noj 0.97 1.13 (0.93, 1.36) D50_89 0.1 1.1 (0.9, 1.33)

Plots

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

## Warning in if (!is.na(sensitivity_table_intervals)) {: the condition has
## length > 1 and only the first element will be used

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